TRADE LIKE A CASINO AND WIN!
So what do you think we’re going to get? Are we going to get black or red? Some of you may think. We’Re going to get black. Why? Because we are right, got black four times, so the next one is definitely black.
Okay, so the next one is black. Okay, that’s how the well that’s how we we predict. Some of you may think. Okay, so we already got four blacks. Okay, some of you may think like this.
We already got four black, so the next one is too many black, so the next one is going to be in must be: okay must be red. Okay, some of you may think. The next one is right: okay, so there are two ways of looking at this. One way would be that we have a pattern. Okay, it’s point pattern, so the next one is going to be black because of past evidence and looking at the past, look in the history.
Okay, so remembering so based on your memory, based on your past experience based on the history based on psychological effects, you may say this: the next one’s black, okay and other sorts of people may use the same evidence that you are using, but to predict something. That’S completely the opposite, which would be right so so some people may think. Okay, the base, our history that we already got for based on this history, the past experience based on psychology. We think that’s too many blacks. We may get the next one.
The next slot is going to be red all right so which one is correct, which one’s correct and the truth is they’re both wrong, because there was wrong because the probability of the next one being black is exactly the same probability of the next one. After four spins, the next one being red, and why? Because we are not a roulette and the roulette is not us either. So we are human beings and human beings. We analyze things based on our past, based on history, based on our experience and based our psychology, but the rule that doesn’t have past the roulette has no history all right, so there were.
Let will never think about like the past data that the roulette got. Okay, the roulette would never think about that, because the rule that is not a human being all right. So what happens is it is that unless the roulette has been rigged or has been manipulated by some sort of computer program or mechanical, or things like that, unless the roulette has been manipulated to give like different results, there will that will always have the same probability. For red and black okay, so how was that we understand this? Then how do we as human beings? How do we trade as a casino?
How do we do that, so by the way, this thing that I just explained is called the gamblers fallacy? Okay, so it’s known as the gamblers: okay, the gambler’s fallacy, okay, so the gambler’s fallacy. So let’s take a look at how we trade as a casino. So let’s say that you have price You’re, looking at the charts of commodity or Forex or stocks or any financial products, So you’re, looking the charts and when you look at price right never goes like this.
It never goes like a straight line. Price doesn’t do that When you look at the charts, the price always goes like this Price goes up and then bounces back then goes out then bounces back okay, so this bounce back is called retrace. Okay or retracement. Okay does retrace, and maybe you have like something like this okay, so you have something like this and then you have something like this, so it goes in waves. Okay, so you have waves that the price follows okay, so you have waves and then it goes like something like this and then goes something like this okay and then go something like this okay. So here can you identify that we have bottoms?
It’S like a swing. So we have bottoms here. So can you identify this line? Okay, and can you identify this line here? Okay, so we have here.
We have a pattern that we have identified and then I drill these red lines. Okay, so one question: does the price respect this lines that I grilled? No, we still can go down here right.
Why? Because it doesn’t matter like whatever you draw on the chart, is just your imagination. Okay, you can imagine any sorts of things you can imagine these. You can imagine that so you’re trying to predict we’re trying to predict how pride is going to move next. So we draw lines.
We draw lines we draw patterns with draw a lot of things just so that we can understand, and we can somehow predict, but always remember whatever you draw on the chart is your imagination. The price doesn’t need to respect any lines that you drew all right. So, having said that, okay, having said that, let’s try to predict how price is going to change according to this chart.
Okay, so I have identified this pattern. Okay, so I drew this lines here to make it easier to predict. Okay, so let’s say price is here: okay and it started to and do something like this okay? Okay.
So how do you expect that price is going to go from here? Okay, it’s going up right! Yes, so we expect that from here, price is going to do something like this price is going to go up alright. So can you promise to me that this will go up? Can you ensure a hundred percent that this is going out? No, it can still go down, they still do boom and fall all the way over tends to go all right.
Anything is possible, but here at least we have like. We have more confidence, at least at this time. We have more confidence that this probably will go up all right. So the probability here is a little bit more than 50 percent right following this, a tanner that we have spotted. So how do we trade?
Like a casino? We trade, like a casino by minimizing our losses when we are wrong, so we minimize our losses when we are wrong and we maximize our profits when we are correct. Okay, how do we do that? So let’s say that here if the price is a doubt: okay, it’s about a thousand US dollars. Okay, one thousand US dollars is the current price. Okay, so let’s say that price after let’s buy this share.
Okay, let’s say this is a stock, so let’s buy the share at one thousand US dollars and let’s expect that price will go up all right, but let’s say that we were unlucky and after that price went all the way down. Okay, so prices started to go down okay, so where do I close, my trade? Okay?
So we have observed that once price has broken this trend here, so we are going to close somewhere below this trendline. Okay, yeah. We are going to set our SL as Alice’s stop-loss that we’re going to set our ad ow 800. Okay. So what is it broke?
Dance train? Okay, so we all have a trend here. Once price broke, this train downwards: okay and has reached $ 800. I’M going to close it I’m going to lose.
How much did I lose? I’M going to lose 200 US dollars, okay, so minus minus 200 US dollars so $ 200 of loss. Okay, now, let’s say that we are going we bought here and let’s say that it went into our direction, okay, so starting to go into our direction.
Okay. So where am I going to close I’m going to close somewhere around here right? So I’m going to close it once it reaches close to this place. Okay, so let’s say it close it a little bit below or or or you actually can even close here. Okay, so let’s say you close it just on this line. Okay – and let’s say here, the price was a thousand and okay, so 600, okay, a thousand and six hundred.
Let’S say that here the price was a thousand and four hundred okay to make it simple: okay, a thousand and four hundred US dollars. So how much money? If I set my try to close here, I’m going to set my TP my take profit. Okay, TP my take profit to a thousand four hundred socks.
How much money have I made here? I would have made okay, so a thousand four hundred ninety thousand would be. I would have made four hundred US dollars of profit. Okay, so basically I am minimizing my loss because I’m only losing two hundred and I’m maximizing my profits because I’m making 400 okay so which means, in other words, what does it mean?
It means that for every okay for every 200, US dollars that I’m risking they put on risk, I’m risking fuel andreas dollars to make four hundred US dollars, okay, which in other words it means that, for every one, US dollar that I’m risking I’m making two okay. So this is one of the strategies. This is the way of thinking that professional traders use in order to trade. So every day, when you see a trader, what we do is we use this series of techniques, so we planet rate and we trade the plan. So you plan a trade and you play in a new trade. What you have planned?
Okay, so we use these in order to minimize. So once again, I know it’s some of the kind of repetitive, but once again we used all this series of strategies in order to minimize our losses when we are wrong and maximize our profits when we are right and just keep repeating this again and again. So thanks for watching – and I see you guys on my next video bye