2019 Daily Fantasy Sports 🎾#1 Tennis BETTING Tips
– One of the most popular sports to bet on in the entire world might surprise you. We’re talking DFS Tennis on Draft Kings and Fan Duel. It’s part one, starting right now.
What’s up, guys? Joe Holka, here, welcome to another daily fantasy sports and betting. If it’s you’re first time here and you want to become a profitable online casino player and get better at betting, start now and register at online casino sg by Casinoslots.
If you’re already a Holkamaniac, you know what to do. Smash that like button, and we’ll get started. All right, guys, we’re gonna start with the scoring over on Draft Kings and a little bit of the pricing as well. But one of the things that I really want to highlight in this first section is that, in DFS Tennis, we really want to target guys that can give us winners. I think what matters most in DraftKings tennis by far is picking winners.
– Because when you dig deeper, and actually look at what the stats are, like 90% of them are directly correlated with winning the match, they basically like, describe the result of the match. So like, if you’re going through, games one, sets one, where it comes down to game differential too, because you get knocked for the number of games you lose, and that kind of thing.
– So that’s definitely the biggest thing to note for people that are new to the game, like the main point of it is picking people who are gonna win their match compared to their salary, and there are other things that go into it, but like 80 to 90% of scoring is associated with picking winners. – So basically, is that kind of how they’re doing the pricing, based on kind of, the Vegas Odds, or is it more skewed towards a couple other things that I’m not thinking of? – Yeah, so pricing is, generally follows opening Vegas odd lines, and the thing to know about tennis is that tennis is one of the most bet on sports in the entire world, I think it’s second only to soccer, according to my sources. But, and that’s something that American people might not know either, because it’s a little less popular here. – I never would have known that.
But honestly like, that makes me trust the Vegas Odds even, a little bit more. If they’re getting a ton of action, there’s obviously a ton of incentive to make those lines pretty strong. By the way guys, if you’ve ever found value in any of my videos or live streams, one of the best ways to support what I’m doing here for free, is to throw me the follow over on Twitter, and if you’re new to the community, I also do a ton of content exclusive to Instagram, so make sure you take a few seconds and make sure you’re following me over there, I really appreciate it. Basically, what the pricing is, is the price is usually very good.
On occasion, I’d say once or twice a month, they terribly botch a slate, where they miss price one or two people. And when that happens, there is so much overlap on that day. However, that day becomes a fantastic GPP day. There was one day where a person was like minus 300 favor, and they were priced like a massive dog.
And that person ended up being, like 85 or 90% owned in GPP, and not even just that, like if you have a person that’s minus 150, and they’re priced like a minus, or a plus 120 dog, that person’s gonna be drastically owned. So if you just don’t really like that person on a day, and you’ve looked into it, that can be a great GPP day, because that person’s ownership can be very high due to what the Vegas price line is. – Aces plus Double Faults, like the kind of random bonuses. So talk a little bit about some of these other stats past just the winners.
– Yeah for sure, so, two of the counting stats that are recorded are Aces and Double Faults. Those are relatively independent of the outcome of the match, and they’re more specific to a player’s general profile and background. And the one thing, when DraftKings Tennis started, people were like, saw that you get a bonus for Aces and were like, oh I’m gonna hammer Ace guys. That must be like, the answer. Pick the guys that get the most Aces and that’ll help me win.
But the important thing to note, is that, so you get minus points for a Double Fault. If people don’t know, in tennis, a Double Fault is when you miss both your serves, you lose a point, it’s a bad thing. Ace is when you hit a serve, and they don’t touch it like a good thing, so you get a, I’m not sure if you have the scoring up on screen. But yeah, you get a little bonus for Aces and– – Yep I’ve got the scoring right up so everyone can see it, and I forgot you’re on a phone, you’re not following along with us. No, that’s still cool, so yeah, people back at home can see the DraftKings score right now. So it looks like there’s a plus 10 Ace bonus.
And then there’s, some other bonuses here too. So you’re saying like, chasing these isn’t necessarily the way to go. – No, so the other important part is that they go up incrementally too. It’s like .04 points, for an Ace or that type of thing also. But so, I’ve dug into the data pretty heavily on this, and on average, the difference that incorporating Aces and Double Faults makes, into somebody’s scoring profile is approximately three points.
– Okay. – Which is nothing, so scores, yeah, so general scores for DraftKings tennis losers will score between 10 to 40 points in general, and winners will score between like 60 and 80 points. All those depend on margin of victory, or margin of loss, and like I just said, Ace and Double Faults, on average, account for three points. – So not a lot. Before we get back at it, if you like my work, and you wanna support my work, the number one way you can do so for free is by bookmarking one of the Amazon links in the description below and using it for your day to day shopping. What you’d buy once you use that link literally doesn’t matter, as long as you use that link to get to Amazon, you’re doing your part to support the channel, so definitely appreciate everyone in my Amazon crew.
If you’re new, definitely let me know in the comments below and I’ll give you a shout out on the next video. So we talked a little bit about winners in the beginning of this video. But I wanna dive a little bit deeper into why Aces are so important, and why we wanna take full advantage of the Double Fault situation when it comes to bonuses. The important thing is extremes always matter.
There are, that legitimately stream out enough Aces, or you can predict that they Double Fault a ton. It either limits your upside related to that player, or increases your upside related to that player, so like, if you feel that that player’s like on par in terms of win percentage with a similar person, then yeah, taking somebody that has the chance to have that huge Ace upside does help. But it’s definitely an ancillary piece of the process of picking players.
– Yeah I mean, if you can pick six winners, you’re gonna do well most days. You’re gonna cash everything. So pegging winners is the most important thing. The two other things that are most important are serve guys, and serve bots, people that get 10, 15, 20, 30 Aces, they get a lot because that’s where you get a lot of your pluses from. So if you are a heavy serve guy or girl, that is a benefit, and also Double Fault boxes, they’re very difficult. So the way that I look at it, and I’ve had some talks about this, is if you are a high Ace guy, let’s say you’re John Isner, you are going to out score any loser.
If you go three sets, you’re gonna out score any other loser that went three sets. If you lose in two sets, you’re gonna out score every other loser that lost in two sets because of your Ace numbers. If you win in three sets, you’re gonna beat every winner in three sets, if you win in two sets, you’re gonna be a good scorer regardless. Like you might not be the top because sometimes there’s just a massive massacre at same point during the day, and that person’s on top, but if you are John Isner, and you win in two sets, you’re probably gonna score 75 plus points, which is gonna be one of the better scores of the day. So serve bots are very good.
On the flip side, people that Double Fault a lot, they are massively, drastically worse in terms of score. If they lose in three sets, they’re gonna be worse than anyone else who loses in three sets. They lose in two sets, they’re gonna be the player on the slate, so it’s a situation where, if you have a coin flip between someone that gets a lot of Double Faults, and someone that doesn’t get a lot of Double Faults, you take the one that doesn’t get a lot of Double Faults. On the flip side, if someone had a lot of Aces, versus someone that doesn’t, you want the guy that has a lot of Aces. Just a reminder, if you’re looking to take your game to that next level, I do offer one on one coaching.
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I know one carries quite a bit more variance than the other, so I thought we’d spend some time and talk a bit that now. Men are better at serving, so, serve can act kind of as like a neutralizer, or a normalizer in terms of like, players, worst players being able to keep up with better players. Because they might be worse over all, but their serves can still keep them in the game whereas in women’s, their serves are less impactful. Still very impactful, but less impactful in terms of the outcomes in matches.
So, what that leads into, is that men have lower spreads than women, because guys who are still highly likely to lose can keep up, and hold serve enough, that’s the big term in tennis. I don’t know how tennis savvy your audience is. But holding serve means you win the game when you’re serving, and breaking serve means you’re able to win the game while your opponent’s serving.
And that’s kind of like, the big delineator in the match. But yeah, so let me go back to the men’s versus women’s. Women have larger spreads because of what I just talked about. And that can give them slightly higher range of outcomes, naturally.
– That’s gotta be good for GPPs though, like trying to kind of embrace that variance a little bit. – Yeah exactly, so one thing that’s really important to look at, like women’s underdogs, they have a much higher straight set percentage than men’s underdogs, so you also get a bonus for winning in straight set. But that’s really what you’re looking for. You’re looking for people who will win the match and not lose a set, like that’s, the straight set bonus is the only bonus that you want to– – Okay. So as far as the bonuses on the screen right now, straight sets bonus plus six is awarded for winning a match without losing a set. This is probably a big one then.
– Yeah, so that happens in about like, what’s the number, I believe it’s 64% of matches– – Oh, so that’s massive then. – And in straight sets. Yeah, so getting that is really important in the process. And so like, women’s underdogs, they do have a higher straight set percentage. Like women’s winners just tend to win or lose by more, and yeah, that definitely plays into the GPP versus cash, and like risk tolerance aspect of it. But like, one of the most important things about tennis, is you can’t just play all the women in like, you have to be really sensitive to other factors in terms of predicting the actual outcomes too.
So like, that’s why I enjoy it so much, because like, you’re balancing all the game theory and the DraftKings side of it, versus also evaluating on the tennis side, like who are good players? – The women can get massacred out of nowhere, it seems like, more frequently. Like Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal and those guys, generally aren’t going to lose badly or lose a match that they shouldn’t lose. Women could, that’s another thing though. Is like, top price players generally really struggle to pay off their value, because people below them are almost, you’re never gonna have a gap.
So for example, a 10.4K person is gonna score similarly to the 16 other people that win on a day, so it’s a situation where, if you’re paying up, that person’s generally not going to pay off his salary almost ever. You’re just basically praying, if that person wins in straight sets, then you get a mad result, so it’s a situation like that. But yeah, like the men serve better. So women, you see more breaks, and you see sometimes more lopsided matches, where someone just can’t really serve, and you see like a 6-1, 6-1 type match.
A lot of the men usually are a lot more closer than that because they usually hold their serves. So their matches go later in sets. So you might see like a 6-4, 6-3 type of win, compared to a woman’s match that’s 6-1, 6-1. But they might have more Aces than that, and the Women’s match might have more Double Faults. So the men and women are very difficult. You wanna learn more about how to become a profitable Daily Fantasy Sports player, and how to get better at betting, start now by hitting that subscribe icon in the bottom right hand corner so you don’t miss anything, have a ton of DFS courses on demand for other sports as well.